DENNIS JAMITO

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EL NIÑO ADVISORY

The El Niño in the equatorial Pacific continues to sustain its moderate strength and is recently in its mature stage.  Gradual decrease in sea surface temperature is expected but still within the El Niño threshold and likely to last up to June 2010.

The weather systems that influenced the rainfall condition for the month of January were the Northeast (NE) monsoon, the tail-end of a cold front, the ridge of High Pressure Area (HPA), the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and the low pressure area (LPA).  Persistent occurrence of ITCZ over the southern portion of the country has caused continuous heavy rains affecting CARAGA Region. This weather disturbance triggered flooding and landslides in the provinces of Agusan del Norte, Agusan del Sur, Surigao del Norte and Dinagat.  Another significant event during the month was the heavy rains over the mountainous area of Oriental Mindoro (Jan 17) caused by the NE monsoon activity.

 Overall assessment of rainfall for the month of January was below to way below normal in most areas of Luzon and Region VI (Western Visayas).  Near normal condition was observed in Regions IV-B (MIMAROPA), Bicol Region, Central Visayas, Northern Samar, and central Mindanao.  The rest of Visayas and Mindanao have received above normal rainfall. 

 Prevalence of the NE monsoon affected the eastern portions of Visayas and  Mindanao that   brought rains for several days and eased down the dry spell conditions experienced over the affected areas during the month of December.  Areas that are still under dry spell condition are the following: Benguet, Batanes, Cagayan, Isabela, Nueva Viscaya, Bulacan, Nueva Ecija, Pampanga, Batangas, Iloilo, Antique, Guimaras and Negros Occidental. Some areas of Capiz province continue to experience the drought condition.

Average surface air temperature was generally warmer than normal over many parts of the country.  Ranges were as follows:  180C to 320C over the lowlands of Luzon, 130C to 230C for the mountainous areas of Luzon, 220C to 310C for Visayas, 220C to 330C over the lowlands of Mindanao, and 160C to 280C over the mountainous areas of Mindanao.

Climate for February will likely be influenced by these weather systems: the NE monsoon, tail-end of the cold front, ITCZ, ridge of HPA, easterly wave, and a slim chance for a tropical cyclone occurrence. Rainfall condition will likely be below normal over most parts of the country except for some areas in the Cordillera Administrative Region (CAR), Ilocos Region, Cagayan and eastern part of Mindanao where near normal rainfall is expected.  The rest of the country will likely experience way below normal rainfall condition.  (View:  Rainfall Charts)

Slightly warmer surface temperatures are expected for February.  The ranges are as follows: 200C to 330C over the lowlands of Luzon, 130C to 240C for the mountainous areas of Luzon, 220C to 320C for Visayas, 220C to 330C over the lowlands of Mindanao, and 180C to 290C over the mountainous areas of Mindanao.

PAGASA will continue to monitor the day-to-day weather conditions and the large-scale climatic patterns that will affect the country, and will issue updates on the existing El Niño phenomenon. Meanwhile, all concerned government agencies are advised to continue to take appropriate measures to mitigate the potential adverse impacts of El Niño to various sectors of the society.

For further information, please contact the Climatology and Agrometeorology Division (CAD) at telephone nos. 929-1953 or 434-0955.

Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section (CLIMPS)
Climatology and Agrometeorology Division (CAD)
Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA).

February 9, 2010 - Posted by | Excerpts, National, Science, Unusual

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